If you're a professional sports analyst, you're probably not listening to other sports analysts. And why would you? All the noise would cloud your judgement and cool off your hot takes. Unfortunately, your professional discretion leads to a predictive disadvantage – you're only pulling from one source: yourself. So, professional sports analyst, I thought I'd share the consolidation of the countless of hours of sports talk and analysis that I've pushed through my ears and my eyeballs. You may call my picks crazy, but at least they're semi-informed by you. I appreciate you not reading this and ignoring me on Twitter – I'll continue to pine for your "likes" here from my armchair.
1. New England Patriots
The Buffalo Bills made a volitional choice to start Nathan Peterman. This fact alone is reason enough to justify the Pats finishing first in the AFC East again. Miami is a team in transition as the head coach, Adam Gase, tries to re-work the locker room culture, and, even with the "Darnold boost" the Jets still have to deal with an incomplete team and an unproven head coach. Should be easy sailing for TB12 and Bill.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
After watching the excellent season of Hard Knocks, I was quickly tempted to go all in on the Browns. But then they cut Devon Cajuste – I started imagining that in addition to his "positive energy stones" he probably has some "dark energy stones" and will be casting spells on the whole Browns organization. Wizardry aside, the Steelers of Pittsburgh still have Antonio Brown and (maybe) Le'Veon Bell. This tandem, even with a deteriorating Roethlisberger, is more than enough to win the North. If I'm being honest, spots 2-4 feels like a crap shoot. I could easily see any of these teams finishing in any of the 3 spots – my rankings are mostly informed by my proprietary "mitigated Hard Knocks recency bias."
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
I'm all in on the Jags as you'll see further below. I can only see this team getting better. Their defense will be better after another year of stability. Fournette will be a year older and will have grown in his conditioning and (I can't believe I'm saying it) Blake Bortles will be better (though we're all wondering who he is throwing to). Defense (and semi-decent QBs) still win championships, and if Fournette can stay healthy I see the Jacksonville D dominating the AFC this year. As for the remaining three, talent will dictate how the pieces fall in to place, and Houston all around is the more talented team of the three. An "Andrew Luck" can cover a multitude of sins, but the Colts have nothing else besides him going for them, and even their sure thing is a glaring question mark.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
[Note: I meant to post this before Week 1 happened, so I feel obliged to keep my rankings how they are, even though it's looking like the Raiders are going to be 4 and the Broncos might be 2. You may start thinking to yourself, I should probably close this tab, because this guy has no idea what he's talking about. The only thing I'll say with confidence is Pat Mahomes is going to flourish under the Andy Reid system. Other than KC, this division is a confusing poop show.]
1. Philadelphia Eagles
This division feels tough to call – especially the middle. The Eagles are Super Bowl champs and only added talent, so there's no reason to think they won't carry over their success, as well the Cowboys have only seemingly gotten weaker as Dak has no one to throw to and not much time to throw these nobodies. Which leaves the Giants and Redskins. I could go either way depending on how Alex Smith performs. I think if Smith and Gruden take to one another, this could be a surprise team of the year, but it's hard to invest in Washington DC – things always seem to go wrong in our capitol.
1. Minnesota Vikings
Despite the doubters, Kirk Cousins is an improvement over Case Keenum and a healthy Dalvin Cook is going to open things up for the entire receiving core. The Vikings have a dominant defense, excellent special teams, and I can see their offense putting up a ton of points. The Packers do have Aaron Rodgers, but their team isn't as complete as their rivals to the west. As for the Lion's, Belichek assistants have a checkered history, so I'm fairly confident that Matt Patricia's team will take a step back and be reacquainted with the bottom. The big question mark of this division is my Beloved Bears. They will most likely have a Top-5 defense, but will their rookie HC and (basically a) rookie QB hold the team back. Time will tell, but the NFC North should be an exciting division.
1. New Orleans Saints
[Editor's Note (9/17/18): I never typed anything for this conference, and then FitzMagic happened... So I'm just going to abstain from trying to place myself in the past. Silence is probably my best bet with the NFC South, because this conference is nuts.]
1. Los Angeles Rams
As for Chubb, his pairing with Von Miller will pave the way for him to not only be mentored by an elite player, but also assisted as he claws his way to quarterbacks. Expect big things for young Chubb.
Division Standings Predictions
AFC EAST
1. New England Patriots
2. New York Jets
3. Miami Dolphins
4. Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills made a volitional choice to start Nathan Peterman. This fact alone is reason enough to justify the Pats finishing first in the AFC East again. Miami is a team in transition as the head coach, Adam Gase, tries to re-work the locker room culture, and, even with the "Darnold boost" the Jets still have to deal with an incomplete team and an unproven head coach. Should be easy sailing for TB12 and Bill.AFC NORTH
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Cincinnati Bengals
3. Cleveland Browns
4. Baltimore Ravens
After watching the excellent season of Hard Knocks, I was quickly tempted to go all in on the Browns. But then they cut Devon Cajuste – I started imagining that in addition to his "positive energy stones" he probably has some "dark energy stones" and will be casting spells on the whole Browns organization. Wizardry aside, the Steelers of Pittsburgh still have Antonio Brown and (maybe) Le'Veon Bell. This tandem, even with a deteriorating Roethlisberger, is more than enough to win the North. If I'm being honest, spots 2-4 feels like a crap shoot. I could easily see any of these teams finishing in any of the 3 spots – my rankings are mostly informed by my proprietary "mitigated Hard Knocks recency bias."AFC SOUTH
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
2. Houston Texans
3. Tennessee Titans
4. Indianapolis Colts
I'm all in on the Jags as you'll see further below. I can only see this team getting better. Their defense will be better after another year of stability. Fournette will be a year older and will have grown in his conditioning and (I can't believe I'm saying it) Blake Bortles will be better (though we're all wondering who he is throwing to). Defense (and semi-decent QBs) still win championships, and if Fournette can stay healthy I see the Jacksonville D dominating the AFC this year. As for the remaining three, talent will dictate how the pieces fall in to place, and Houston all around is the more talented team of the three. An "Andrew Luck" can cover a multitude of sins, but the Colts have nothing else besides him going for them, and even their sure thing is a glaring question mark.AFC WEST
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. Oakland Raiders
3. Los Angeles Chargers
4. Denver Broncos
[Note: I meant to post this before Week 1 happened, so I feel obliged to keep my rankings how they are, even though it's looking like the Raiders are going to be 4 and the Broncos might be 2. You may start thinking to yourself, I should probably close this tab, because this guy has no idea what he's talking about. The only thing I'll say with confidence is Pat Mahomes is going to flourish under the Andy Reid system. Other than KC, this division is a confusing poop show.]NFC EAST
1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. New York Giants
3. Washington Redskins
4. Dallas Cowboys
This division feels tough to call – especially the middle. The Eagles are Super Bowl champs and only added talent, so there's no reason to think they won't carry over their success, as well the Cowboys have only seemingly gotten weaker as Dak has no one to throw to and not much time to throw these nobodies. Which leaves the Giants and Redskins. I could go either way depending on how Alex Smith performs. I think if Smith and Gruden take to one another, this could be a surprise team of the year, but it's hard to invest in Washington DC – things always seem to go wrong in our capitol.NFC NORTH
1. Minnesota Vikings
2. Green Bay Packers
3. Chicago Bears
4. Detroit Lions
Despite the doubters, Kirk Cousins is an improvement over Case Keenum and a healthy Dalvin Cook is going to open things up for the entire receiving core. The Vikings have a dominant defense, excellent special teams, and I can see their offense putting up a ton of points. The Packers do have Aaron Rodgers, but their team isn't as complete as their rivals to the west. As for the Lion's, Belichek assistants have a checkered history, so I'm fairly confident that Matt Patricia's team will take a step back and be reacquainted with the bottom. The big question mark of this division is my Beloved Bears. They will most likely have a Top-5 defense, but will their rookie HC and (basically a) rookie QB hold the team back. Time will tell, but the NFC North should be an exciting division.NFC SOUTH
1. New Orleans Saints
2. Carolina Panthers
3. Atlanta Falcons
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
[Editor's Note (9/17/18): I never typed anything for this conference, and then FitzMagic happened... So I'm just going to abstain from trying to place myself in the past. Silence is probably my best bet with the NFC South, because this conference is nuts.]NFC WEST
1. Los Angeles Rams
2. Seattle Seahawks
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Arizona Cardinals
There seems to be consensus around the Rams this season, but I've been surprised by how quickly people are jumping ship on the Seahawks as they swim towards Jimmy G's triple-decker model-laden yacht. I'm putting the Seahawks ahead of the 49ers because of the system and despite a strong 1/4 of a season last year, Jimmy G is still unproven and his receiving core and running game are big question marks. Arizona is a team in transition, and even with a healthy David Johnson, there is too much up in the air for this team to find stability and success.
Super Bowl LIII Predictions
Matchup
Minnesota Vikings vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Result
Minnesota defeats Jacksonville in a defensive battle, 13-10.
Both cities were on the edge of making the big game last year, and I see both teams getting better with minimal changes to their systems and structures. As I've said earlier, defense still wins championships in the NFL and both of these teams will be rolling out elite defenses. I see this matchup being a game that rests on who can get the most turnovers and which defense can add some points in support of an offense. It's not going to be a sexy Super Bowl, but it will be smash-mouth.
NFL Honors Predictions
Most Valuable Player
Aaron Rodgers (GB)
If he's healthy, he's the best player in the NFL. If he's not healthy...probably Tom Brady again. Yuck.Coach of the Year
Doug Marrone (JAX)
He's going to lead the Jags to the glory land! Or at the very least, the Super Bowl. Should've gotten it last year over the wünderkind, Sean McVay – so if the Jags are dominant again, I could see this being the "apology year."Offensive Player of the Year
Leonard Fournette (JAX)
If he stays healthy, this young man is going to be a workhouse and a key piece of the Jags success. If his hammies hold up, I could see this being a break out year.Defensive Player of the Year
Kahlil Mack (CHI)
Being back in Vic Fangio's highly functional 3-4 scheme is going to revitalize his career. "Getting paid" will not lead to him "getting lazy," but will do the opposite and motivate him to show everyone why he is the highest paid defender in the NFL. O-lines beware.Rookie of the Year Award
Saquon Barkley (NYG)
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Saquon Barkley (NYG)
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Bradley Chubb (DEN)
The only real threat to Saquon Barkley in my book is Sam Darnold and I think it's a lot easier to find elite success your rookie year as a running back as opposed to a quarterback. Saquon is slated to be a once in a generation talent, and, with the threat of OBJ on every play, lanes should be opening up for him.As for Chubb, his pairing with Von Miller will pave the way for him to not only be mentored by an elite player, but also assisted as he claws his way to quarterbacks. Expect big things for young Chubb.